Acquisition odds for every active Y Combinator company over the next two years, from a model backtested on what actually happened since 2024. Each company shows what raises and lowers its odds, and a signals brief from its own site with every quote checked.
3 free searches left ·
4,289 more companies in this view. Your first 3 searches are free.
A statistical model trained on the public YC directory. We took snapshots from October 2024 to February 2026, recorded which then-active companies were acquired by October 2026, and learned which profile features went with acquisitions: years since YC, team size and how it changed, sector, tags, location, hiring, and recent acquisitions in the same sector.
Modestly, and we show the numbers. Tested on companies it never saw, it ranks an acquired company above a non-acquired one about 63–67% of the time (AUC 0.63–0.67; a coin flip is 0.5). Companies in its top 250 were acquired about twice as often as average. Public directory data can’t see revenue, funding or talks, so treat the odds as a base rate, not a tip.
For any company, ExitOdds reads its website and YC profile, Contextrie picks the passages that matter for an acquisition, and the brief lists signals for and against, each quoting its source. Quotes we can’t find in the source are flagged.
No. ExitOdds is an independent project using the public YC company directory (via the open yc-oss dataset). Nothing here is investment advice.
The top 50 of the ranking, 3 searches, and every company’s page with its odds and reasons, plus 3 signals briefs a day. A one-time $0.99 unlocks the full ranking with filters, CSV export and unlimited briefs, forever. No subscription.
Yes. It runs on Contextrie (open-source context and state) and Bref UI (open-source interface). Both are on GitHub.
Open source underneath
ExitOdds is a thin layer on open-source packages. Star them, fork them, build your own micro.
Open-source context and state for AI: it keeps only what matters for the question.
In ExitOdds: Writes each signals brief: reads the company’s website and YC profile, scores every passage against “what bears on an acquisition?” and keeps the 8 that matter, so each signal quotes a real source.
Open-source Svelte components for clean, accessible interfaces.
In ExitOdds: The ranking, search, industry and batch filters, company pages and the unlock dialog.
Also built with yc-oss · SvelteKit · Vercel AI SDK · Zod · libSQL